Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DET: 55.9%

TOR: 44.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.90

TOR: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	33	32	1	97.0%	2.12	0	1.12
TOR	I. Samsonov	23	19	4	82.6%	3.35	3	-0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • DET at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	0.84
1	TOR	9	0	0.18
2	DET	8	1	0.79
2	TOR	10	0	0.56
3	DET	11	2	1.73
3	TOR	23	0	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2