Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

TBL: 66.3%

VAN: 33.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.31

VAN: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VAN

C. Delia

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	40	36	4	90.0%	2.63	0	-1.37
VAN	C. Delia	35	30	5	85.7%	4.20	2	-0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.33
1	VAN	19	0	0.91
2	TBL	13	1	1.31
2	VAN	11	0	0.49
3	TBL	17	0	1.56
3	VAN	19	0	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8