Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 45.9%

COL: 54.1%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.55

COL: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	33	31	2	93.9%	3.72	3	1.72
COL	P. Francouz	30	27	3	90.0%	2.98	3	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • CHI at home vs COL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CHI 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-02-28	COL 3 - 1 CHI	COL	COL
2025-11-23	CHI 0 - 1 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-02	CHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-10	COL 3 - 0 CHI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	7	0	0.43
1	COL	16	2	1.33
2	CHI	20	2	1.91
2	COL	12	0	0.73
3	CHI	9	1	0.63
3	COL	19	1	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.5 - 3.3