Ottawa Senators at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 52.2%

OTT: 47.8%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.95

OTT: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	47	42	5	89.4%	5.08	4	0.08
OTT	Anton Forsberg	29	26	3	89.7%	1.98	0	-1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs OTT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-01	OTT 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	OTT
2023-12-19	ARI 4 - 3 OTT	ARI	ARI
2023-01-12	ARI 3 - 5 OTT	OTT	ARI
2022-10-22	OTT 6 - 2 ARI	OTT	OTT
2022-03-14	OTT 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	10	0	0.24
1	OTT	23	1	1.64
2	ARI	18	0	1.02
2	OTT	21	1	1.54
3	ARI	15	0	0.72
3	OTT	20	2	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5