Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

VGK: 53.1%

FLA: 46.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.37

FLA: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	40	38	2	95.0%	4.88	4	2.88
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	33	29	4	87.9%	3.82	1	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • VGK at home vs FLA: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	FLA
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	20	0	1.23
1	FLA	17	2	1.92
2	VGK	19	0	1.13
2	FLA	22	2	2.02
3	VGK	10	1	1.45
3	FLA	18	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2