Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-01-14 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 6 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 49.3%

CGY: 50.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.92

CGY: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

DAL

S. Wedgewood

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	S. Wedgewood	36	30	6	83.3%	2.66	1	-3.34
CGY	Dan Vladar	34	29	5	85.3%	2.63	2	-2.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs CGY: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	1	0.88
1	CGY	17	0	1.21
2	DAL	20	0	0.59
2	CGY	19	1	0.96
3	DAL	17	1	1.16
3	CGY	15	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9