Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-01-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 53.1%

PHI: 46.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.43

PHI: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

D. Kuemper

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	25	22	3	88.0%	2.51	2	-0.49
PHI	C. Hart	40	39	1	97.5%	4.21	5	3.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs PHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	1	1.07
1	PHI	6	0	0.19
2	WSH	17	0	0.87
2	PHI	12	1	1.12
3	WSH	27	4	2.26
3	PHI	11	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0