Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-01-14 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 47.6%

TOR: 52.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.11

TOR: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

L. Ullmark

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	21	18	3	85.7%	2.55	1	-0.45
TOR	Matt Murray	34	30	4	88.2%	3.09	1	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • BOS at home vs TOR: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	0	1.09
1	TOR	11	1	0.97
2	BOS	17	1	1.12
2	TOR	14	0	0.83
3	BOS	12	0	0.88
3	TOR	8	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3