Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-01-14 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

STL: 42.7%

TBL: 57.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.88

TBL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	30	26	4	86.7%	3.17	2	-0.83
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	23	2	92.0%	2.11	0	0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	9	0	0.74
1	TBL	13	0	0.70
2	STL	16	0	1.07
2	TBL	17	1	1.42
3	STL	9	0	0.30
3	TBL	14	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3