Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-01-14 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 60.6%

EDM: 39.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.48

EDM: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

L. Thompson

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	37	33	4	89.2%	3.79	2	-0.21
EDM	Jack Campbell	30	27	3	90.0%	2.03	0	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	0	0.80
1	EDM	20	0	1.24
2	VGK	20	0	0.86
2	EDM	14	0	0.87
3	VGK	11	0	0.37
3	EDM	16	2	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1