Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-01-15 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 61.5%

MTL: 38.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.76

MTL: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	29	2	93.5%	3.33	1	1.33
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	39	38	1	97.4%	3.78	1	2.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYR at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	0	1.09
1	MTL	13	0	1.05
2	NYR	22	1	1.71
2	MTL	14	0	1.13
3	NYR	18	0	0.97
3	MTL	15	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6