Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

BUF: 49.9%

FLA: 50.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.54

FLA: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	30	4	88.2%	3.39	3	-0.61
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	29	28	1	96.6%	2.72	1	1.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • BUF at home vs FLA: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	0.89
1	FLA	15	1	1.23
2	BUF	10	0	0.62
2	FLA	21	1	1.48
3	BUF	17	0	1.21
3	FLA	5	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1