Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

COL: 60.4%

DET: 39.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.35

DET: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

COL

P. Francouz

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	P. Francouz	29	26	3	89.7%	2.42	1	-0.58
DET	Ville Husso	27	21	6	77.8%	2.61	2	-3.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	COL 0 - 2 DET	DET	COL
2026-01-31	DET 0 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-25	COL 5 - 2 DET	COL	COL
2024-12-07	DET 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-06	COL 7 - 2 DET	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	13	2	1.05
1	DET	12	0	0.75
2	COL	17	0	1.24
2	DET	16	1	1.03
3	COL	7	0	0.32
3	DET	15	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0