New Jersey Devils at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 55.1%

NJD: 44.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.36

NJD: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

SJS

J. Reimer

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	43	39	4	90.7%	3.42	1	-0.58
NJD	V. Vanecek	34	31	3	91.2%	3.58	1	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-30	SJS 5 - 2 NJD	SJS	SJS
2025-10-24	NJD 3 - 1 SJS	NJD	NJD
2025-01-04	SJS 3 - 2 NJD	SJS	SJS
2024-11-10	NJD 0 - 1 SJS	SJS	NJD
2024-02-27	SJS 2 - 7 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	18	1	1.54
1	NJD	4	0	0.22
2	SJS	10	0	0.78
2	NJD	21	0	1.18
3	SJS	14	0	0.76
3	NJD	19	0	0.93
4	SJS	3	0	0.39
4	NJD	4	0	0.35
5	SJS	2	0	0.11
5	NJD	2	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8