Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

SEA: 41.8%

TBL: 58.2%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.00

TBL: 3.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	31	27	4	87.1%	3.71	2	-0.29
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	22	1	95.7%	1.29	0	0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SEA at home vs TBL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	10	0	0.26
1	TBL	19	0	1.16
2	SEA	10	0	0.53
2	TBL	9	0	0.55
3	SEA	14	0	0.50
3	TBL	13	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.7