Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 52.0%

DAL: 48.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.28

DAL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

L. Thompson

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	36	32	4	88.9%	3.95	4	-0.05
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	27	0	100.0%	2.75	1	2.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs DAL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.61
1	DAL	17	0	0.84
2	VGK	16	1	1.35
2	DAL	21	1	1.31
3	VGK	14	0	0.79
3	DAL	13	3	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1