Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 52.2%

WSH: 47.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.86

WSH: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	35	31	4	88.6%	3.53	1	-0.47
WSH	D. Kuemper	30	27	3	90.0%	3.02	1	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYI at home vs WSH: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	0	1.04
1	WSH	9	0	0.41
2	NYI	11	0	0.52
2	WSH	22	1	1.75
3	NYI	12	1	1.24
3	WSH	16	0	0.78
4	NYI	2	0	0.21
4	WSH	4	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1