Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2023-01-18 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

VAN: 41.4%

TBL: 58.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.36

TBL: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

VAN

S. Martin

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	S. Martin	25	20	5	80.0%	2.57	3	-2.43
TBL	B. Elliott	39	37	2	94.9%	3.38	1	1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • VAN at home vs TBL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	VAN
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	21	0	1.24
1	TBL	12	1	0.70
2	VAN	17	1	1.17
2	TBL	12	1	0.86
3	VAN	18	0	0.97
3	TBL	7	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.4 - 3.7