Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 54.4%

CHI: 45.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.43

CHI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

PHI

C. Hart

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	29	25	4	86.2%	3.27	3	-0.73
CHI	Petr Mrazek	38	37	1	97.4%	3.64	0	2.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	PHI 5 - 1 CHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-23	CHI 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-03-23	CHI 7 - 4 PHI	CHI	PHI
2024-11-23	PHI 3 - 2 CHI	PHI	PHI
2024-03-30	PHI 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.96
1	CHI	13	0	0.61
2	PHI	19	0	1.32
2	CHI	15	1	0.88
3	PHI	23	0	1.36
3	CHI	11	2	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0