New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders (OT)

Win Probability

BUF: 63.9%

NYI: 36.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.48

NYI: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	24	2	92.3%	3.25	1	1.25
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	45	42	3	93.3%	4.20	2	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs NYI: 7-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	26	0	1.62
1	NYI	7	0	0.54
2	BUF	17	0	1.42
2	NYI	18	0	1.28
3	BUF	17	1	0.95
3	NYI	14	1	1.43
4	BUF	1	1	0.21
4	NYI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0