Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

TOR: 51.7%

WPG: 48.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.52

WPG: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

TOR

I. Samsonov

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	38	37	1	97.4%	4.72	5	3.72
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	23	4	85.2%	2.70	1	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs WPG: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.68
1	WPG	20	2	1.82
2	TOR	13	0	0.55
2	WPG	17	0	1.00
3	TOR	15	1	1.47
3	WPG	20	3	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1