Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-01-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 45.0%

OTT: 55.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.09

OTT: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

OTT

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	45	44	1	97.8%	4.32	6	3.32
OTT	C. Talbot	44	40	4	90.9%	3.41	1	-0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PIT at home vs OTT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	0.87
1	OTT	16	1	1.26
2	PIT	20	1	1.63
2	OTT	19	4	1.94
3	PIT	16	0	0.91
3	OTT	20	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3