Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-01-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 6 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CGY: 50.5%

TBL: 49.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.14

TBL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	24	21	3	87.5%	3.38	4	0.38
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	41	35	6	85.4%	6.01	4	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	2	2.05
1	TBL	8	1	0.55
2	CGY	20	0	1.36
2	TBL	15	1	1.33
3	CGY	13	2	2.60
3	TBL	15	2	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 6 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2