Vegas Golden Knights at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions
2023-01-22 • Mullett Arena
Arizona Coyotes 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
ARI: 55.1%
VGK: 44.9%
Expected Goals
ARI: 2.86
VGK: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
ARI
K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA
VGK
L. Thompson
| Stat | ARI | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.891 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 3.67 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | K. Vejmelka | 36 | 35 | 1 | 97.2% | 4.17 | 3 | 3.17 |
| VGK | L. Thompson | 23 | 19 | 4 | 82.6% | 4.02 | 3 | 0.02 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • ARI at home vs VGK: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | ARI 7 - 4 VGK | ARI | VGK |
| 2024-02-08 | ARI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2023-11-25 | VGK 0 - 2 ARI | ARI | VGK |
| 2023-01-22 | ARI 4 - 1 VGK | ARI | ARI |
| 2022-12-21 | VGK 5 - 2 ARI | VGK | VGK |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 11 | 0 | 0.70 |
| 1 | VGK | 11 | 0 | 0.89 |
| 2 | ARI | 13 | 1 | 1.08 |
| 2 | VGK | 23 | 1 | 1.93 |
| 3 | ARI | 11 | 2 | 2.23 |
| 3 | VGK | 19 | 2 | 1.35 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Arizona Coyotes 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.9 - 3.3
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