New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TOR: 58.3%

NYI: 41.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.11

NYI: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

I. Samsonov

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	33	31	2	93.9%	3.73	2	1.73
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	39	34	5	87.2%	4.86	1	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs NYI: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	10	0	0.85
1	NYI	21	0	1.21
2	TOR	28	1	2.88
2	NYI	18	2	2.06
3	TOR	16	0	1.13
3	NYI	12	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8