Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-01-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 48.7%

BUF: 51.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.14

BUF: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	22	3	88.0%	2.34	0	-0.66
BUF	C. Anderson	31	29	2	93.5%	3.53	6	1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • DAL at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	3	1.71
1	BUF	14	0	0.76
2	DAL	10	0	0.52
2	BUF	12	0	0.83
3	DAL	13	3	1.30
3	BUF	10	0	0.39
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	2	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2