Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-01-24 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 6 Florida Panthers (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 59.9%

FLA: 40.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.14

FLA: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

C. DeSmith

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	39	33	6	84.6%	4.21	2	-1.79
FLA	A. Lyon	49	42	7	85.7%	4.89	3	-2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs FLA: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	1	1.38
1	FLA	21	1	1.87
2	PIT	20	1	1.93
2	FLA	18	1	0.94
3	PIT	19	1	1.00
3	FLA	13	0	1.00
4	PIT	6	0	0.58
4	FLA	3	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8