Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-01-24 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

TBL: 56.0%

MIN: 44.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.54

MIN: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	33	2	94.3%	4.14	3	2.14
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	39	35	4	89.7%	3.96	2	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs MIN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	0.76
1	MIN	11	0	0.60
2	TBL	15	0	1.45
2	MIN	18	1	1.70
3	TBL	19	2	1.76
3	MIN	21	2	1.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0