Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-01-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

Win Probability

MTL: 48.4%

DET: 51.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.93

DET: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

MTL

J. Allen

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	42	38	4	90.5%	3.65	2	-0.35
DET	Ville Husso	23	20	3	87.0%	2.53	1	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs DET: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.38
1	DET	14	0	0.78
2	MTL	14	0	1.02
2	DET	20	1	1.60
3	MTL	9	1	0.80
3	DET	13	0	0.76
4	MTL	2	0	0.33
4	DET	5	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1