Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-01-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

Win Probability

WSH: 54.6%

PIT: 45.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.22

PIT: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

WSH

D. Kuemper

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	40	37	3	92.5%	3.42	3	0.42
PIT	C. DeSmith	48	44	4	91.7%	5.93	7	1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs PIT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	24	2	1.88
1	PIT	9	1	0.43
2	WSH	13	1	0.84
2	PIT	21	1	1.11
3	WSH	10	1	0.80
3	PIT	12	0	0.40
4	WSH	5	1	0.52
4	PIT	4	0	0.39
5	WSH	3	2	1.89
5	PIT	3	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0