Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-01-26 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 51.3%

BUF: 48.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.21

BUF: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

BUF

E. Comrie

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	36	33	3	91.7%	2.91	2	-0.09
BUF	E. Comrie	21	19	2	90.5%	2.43	1	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	13	1	1.04
1	BUF	17	2	0.97
2	WPG	9	0	0.38
2	BUF	17	0	1.01
3	WPG	16	0	1.01
3	BUF	9	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2