Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-01-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 69.8%

ANA: 30.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.76

ANA: 1.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 44%

COL

P. Francouz

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	P. Francouz	32	27	5	84.4%	2.92	2	-2.08
ANA	John Gibson	44	41	3	93.2%	3.90	1	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • COL at home vs ANA: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	ANA 1 - 5 COL	COL	ANA
2026-01-21	COL 1 - 2 ANA	ANA	COL
2025-11-11	COL 4 - 1 ANA	COL	COL
2025-04-13	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-12-20	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	24	0	1.36
1	ANA	8	0	0.33
2	COL	19	0	1.19
2	ANA	12	1	0.76
3	COL	15	1	1.34
3	ANA	19	1	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.8 - 1.9