St. Louis Blues at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-01-26 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 0 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 48.6%

STL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.96

STL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

STL

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	33	33	0	100.0%	2.28	0	2.28
STL	T. Greiss	26	21	5	80.8%	3.51	3	-1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • ARI at home vs STL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2023-12-02	ARI 4 - 1 STL	ARI	ARI
2023-11-22	ARI 5 - 6 STL	STL	ARI
2023-11-09	STL 2 - 1 ARI	STL	ARI
2023-10-19	STL 2 - 6 ARI	ARI	STL
2023-03-07	ARI 6 - 2 STL	ARI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	15	1	1.25
1	STL	14	0	0.87
2	ARI	11	1	0.77
2	STL	19	0	0.97
3	ARI	9	1	1.49
3	STL	12	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 0 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0