Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 61.2%

OTT: 38.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.07

OTT: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

I. Samsonov

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	34	28	6	82.4%	3.57	0	-2.43
OTT	Anton Forsberg	33	31	2	93.9%	4.04	3	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs OTT: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	22	1	1.66
1	OTT	18	0	0.97
2	TOR	19	2	1.83
2	OTT	19	0	1.58
3	TOR	8	0	0.56
3	OTT	12	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0