Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Win Probability

TBL: 64.4%

LAK: 35.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.51

LAK: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

LAK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	26	2	92.9%	2.75	2	0.75
LAK	J. Quick	25	20	5	80.0%	3.18	2	-1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs LAK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	0	0.54
1	LAK	13	1	1.20
2	TBL	19	0	1.22
2	LAK	10	0	0.35
3	TBL	7	2	1.42
3	LAK	16	1	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9