Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 48.9%

MTL: 51.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.14

MTL: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 56%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	28	28	0	100.0%	2.71	1	2.71
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	36	31	5	86.1%	4.41	2	-0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • OTT at home vs MTL: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.56
1	MTL	12	0	0.90
2	OTT	26	0	1.46
2	MTL	18	1	1.27
3	OTT	15	2	2.39
3	MTL	9	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8