Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 0 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 51.1%

PHI: 48.9%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.19

PHI: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	29	4	87.9%	3.38	3	-0.62
PHI	C. Hart	40	40	0	100.0%	3.29	0	3.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • WPG at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	WPG
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	WPG
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	19	0	1.05
1	PHI	19	1	1.37
2	WPG	14	0	1.02
2	PHI	20	2	1.58
3	WPG	26	0	1.22
3	PHI	8	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 0 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0