San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-01-28 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 60.1%

SJS: 39.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.72

SJS: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

PIT

C. DeSmith

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	32	26	6	81.2%	4.50	4	-1.50
SJS	K. Kahkonen	41	37	4	90.2%	5.50	4	1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	PIT 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	PIT
2025-10-18	SJS 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-27	SJS 2 - 1 PIT	SJS	PIT
2024-11-16	PIT 4 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT
2024-03-14	PIT 6 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	1	1.70
1	SJS	15	0	0.89
2	PIT	16	1	1.31
2	SJS	15	1	1.20
3	PIT	22	2	2.49
3	SJS	14	3	2.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1