Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 53.4%

WSH: 46.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.29

WSH: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

I. Samsonov

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	24	23	1	95.8%	1.96	0	0.96
WSH	D. Kuemper	27	22	5	81.5%	2.92	0	-2.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	13	0.85
1	WSH	10	0.62
2	TOR	14	1.07
2	WSH	14	0.62
3	TOR	12	1.00
3	WSH	11	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2