Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-01-31 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 63.2%

OTT: 36.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.33

OTT: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

J. Allen

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	29	24	5	82.8%	2.97	1	-2.03
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	28	4	87.5%	3.78	2	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs OTT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	1	1.22
1	OTT	14	1	1.29
2	MTL	16	0	1.19
2	OTT	13	0	1.24
3	MTL	18	1	1.37
3	OTT	10	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2