Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-02-01 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 63.0%

CAR: 37.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

CAR: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CAR

A. Raanta

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	29	5	85.3%	4.00	3	-1.00
CAR	A. Raanta	30	29	1	96.7%	2.88	2	1.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs CAR: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	10	0	0.60
1	CAR	19	1	1.32
2	BUF	11	1	0.73
2	CAR	14	0	0.77
3	BUF	21	1	1.54
3	CAR	8	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9