New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-02-06 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 54.1%

NYI: 45.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.34

NYI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

PHI

C. Hart

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	30	28	2	93.3%	3.02	0	1.02
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	26	25	1	96.2%	2.09	2	1.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PHI at home vs NYI: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	1	0.67
1	NYI	23	0	2.00
2	PHI	12	1	0.85
2	NYI	10	0	0.47
3	PHI	14	0	0.58
3	NYI	8	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0