Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-02-09 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Edmonton Oilers (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 41.3%

EDM: 58.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.95

EDM: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

C. Hart

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	37	35	2	94.6%	3.67	1	1.67
EDM	Stuart Skinner	39	36	3	92.3%	4.96	4	1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs EDM: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	EDM 2 - 5 PHI	PHI	EDM
2025-11-12	PHI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	PHI
2025-02-22	PHI 6 - 3 EDM	PHI	PHI
2024-10-15	EDM 4 - 3 PHI	EDM	EDM
2024-01-02	EDM 5 - 2 PHI	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.92
1	EDM	9	0	0.63
2	PHI	12	1	0.89
2	EDM	14	0	0.72
3	PHI	12	0	0.74
3	EDM	17	0	0.96
4	PHI	4	1	0.51
4	EDM	6	0	0.60
5	PHI	3	2	1.91
5	EDM	2	1	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5