Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-02-09 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 65.6%

VAN: 34.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.70

VAN: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

VAN

C. Delia

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	34	28	6	82.4%	2.83	0	-3.17
VAN	C. Delia	29	24	5	82.8%	2.98	1	-2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs VAN: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-12-19	NYI 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	NYI
2025-03-26	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-11-14	VAN 2 - 5 NYI	NYI	VAN
2024-01-09	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.67
1	VAN	14	0	0.78
2	NYI	15	0	1.13
2	VAN	21	0	1.17
3	NYI	14	1	1.18
3	VAN	12	0	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1