Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-02-09 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

MIN: 46.0%

VGK: 54.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.30

VGK: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	31	26	5	83.9%	1.85	1	-3.15
VGK	L. Thompson	28	27	1	96.4%	1.96	0	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • MIN at home vs VGK: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.54
1	VGK	10	0	0.30
2	MIN	20	0	0.84
2	VGK	15	1	1.06
3	MIN	8	0	0.57
3	VGK	11	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0