Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 50.6%

EDM: 49.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.43

EDM: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	40	34	6	85.0%	3.86	3	-2.14
EDM	Jack Campbell	29	26	3	89.7%	2.46	0	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs EDM: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	OTT
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	0.75
1	EDM	18	1	1.32
2	OTT	14	0	0.96
2	EDM	14	0	1.11
3	OTT	15	0	0.75
3	EDM	16	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1