Nashville Predators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Nashville Predators (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 50.2%

NSH: 49.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.28

NSH: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

PHI

C. Hart

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	25	23	2	92.0%	2.26	3	0.26
NSH	Juuse Saros	24	23	1	95.8%	1.72	0	0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs NSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	NSH 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-10-30	PHI 4 - 1 NSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-31	PHI 2 - 1 NSH	PHI	PHI
2024-11-27	NSH 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-21	PHI 2 - 4 NSH	NSH	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.57
1	NSH	9	1	0.41
2	PHI	13	0	0.49
2	NSH	11	1	0.85
3	PHI	9	0	0.65
3	NSH	17	1	0.90
4	PHI	0	0	0.00
4	NSH	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1