Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 55.0%

TBL: 45.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.36

TBL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

S. Wedgewood

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	S. Wedgewood	31	28	3	90.3%	3.78	3	0.78
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	28	1	96.6%	3.57	1	2.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DAL at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	20	1	1.55
1	TBL	8	2	0.94
2	DAL	22	0	1.35
2	TBL	14	0	0.98
3	DAL	11	0	0.67
3	TBL	24	1	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8