Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-02-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 50.6%

WSH: 49.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.10

WSH: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	23	21	2	91.3%	3.68	3	1.68
WSH	D. Kuemper	28	27	1	96.4%	3.63	2	2.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	1	1.06
1	WSH	12	2	1.62
2	BOS	13	1	1.48
2	WSH	6	0	0.49
3	BOS	13	0	1.09
3	WSH	18	1	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2