San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-02-12 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

WSH: 48.8%

SJS: 51.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.07

SJS: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 50%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	33	29	4	87.9%	5.08	4	1.08
SJS	K. Kahkonen	21	20	1	95.2%	2.61	2	1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs SJS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	SJS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	1	1.50
1	SJS	13	0	0.82
2	WSH	6	1	0.58
2	SJS	17	1	1.18
3	WSH	9	0	0.52
3	SJS	22	3	3.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0